SYLLABUS (For Examination in 2023, 2024 and 2025)
CAMBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL AS/A LEVEL MATHEMATICS 9709
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS 1 [PAPER 5]



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Representation of Data

  • Choose an appropriate method for presenting raw statistical data, and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each representation.
  • Create and analyze stem-and-leaf diagrams, box plots, histograms, and cumulative frequency graphs (including back-to-back stem-and-leaf diagrams), and interpret the data represented in each type of graph.
  • Comprehend and apply various measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) and dispersion (range, interquartile range, standard deviation).
  • Utilize a cumulative frequency graph to estimate medians, quartiles, percentiles, the proportion of a distribution above (or below) a given value, or between two values.
  • Compute and apply the mean and standard deviation of a dataset (including grouped data) using the raw data, given totals Σx and Σx2, or coded totals Σ(x-a) and Σ(x-a)2. Apply these calculations to solve problems involving up to two datasets.

Permutations and Combinations

  • Comprehend the concepts of permutation and combination, and solve basic problems involving selections.
  • Resolve problems related to the arrangement of objects in a line, including scenarios involving:
    • Repetition (e.g. determining the number of ways to arrange the letters of the word 'NEEDLESS').
    • Restrictions (e.g. calculating the number of ways several people can stand in a line if two particular people must or must not stand next to each other) [problems may involve scenarios such as people sitting in two (or more) rows].

Probability

  • Calculate probabilities in simple cases by enumerating equiprobable elementary events or by using permutations or combinations [for example, finding the total score when two fair dice are thrown, or drawing balls at random from a bag containing balls of different colors].
  • Apply addition and multiplication of probabilities, as necessary, in simple cases [the explicit use of the general formula P(A \(\cup\) B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) is not mandatory].
  • Comprehend the concepts of exclusive and independent events, including determining whether events A and B are independent by comparing the values of P(A ∩ B) and P(A) x P(B).
  • Compute and apply conditional probabilities in simple cases [such as situations that can be represented by a sample space of equiprobable elementary events or a tree diagram]. In simple cases, the formula P(A|B) = \(\frac{\text{P(A ∩ B)}}{\text{P(B)}}\) may be necessary.

Discrete Random Variables

  • Create a probability distribution table for a given scenario involving a discrete random variable X, and determine both the expected value E(X) and variance Var(X).
  • Apply formulas for probabilities in binomial and geometric distributions, and identify practical situations where these distributions are appropriate models [including the notations B(n,p) and Geo(p). In the geometric distribution, Geo(p) represents the distribution in which P(X = r) = p(1 - p)r - 1 for r = 1, 2, 3, …].
  • Apply formulas for calculating the expected value and variance of the binomial distribution, as well as the expected value of the geometric distribution.

The Normal Distribution

  • Comprehend the application of a normal distribution to represent a continuous random variable, and utilize normal distribution tables. Sketches of normal curves to illustrate distributions or probabilities may be necessary.
  • Solve problems concerning a variable X, where X ~ N(\(\mu\), \(\sigma\)2), including:
    • Finding the value of P(X > x1), or a related probability, given the values of x1, \(\mu\), and \(\sigma\).
    • Finding a relationship between x1, \(\mu\), and \(\sigma\) given the value of P(X > x1) or a related probability.
    [For calculations involving standardisation, full working should be shown, e.g., Z = \(\frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\).
  • Remember the conditions for using the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, and apply this approximation, with continuity correction, to solve problems [where n is sufficiently large to ensure that both np > 5 and nq > 5].